If you want a method to find a good bet at Saratoga or any horse track this article explains how to assign odds and then shop for a good bet. The key to making a profit when horse racing handicapping is not to just pick winners, but to also pick winners that pay well. In a previous article entitled, “A Horse Racing Betting Strategy and System for Success,” I explained how to assign probability percentages as odds and to build your own betting line so you’ll know when a horse is a good bet.

Here’s an actual example of a race being handicapped datos carreras americanas hoy in that way and the result. Naturally, I don’t have the winner of every race, but when I do bet I make sure I get value for my money from my winners. Saratoga is a great race track where the best horses and trainers and jockeys meet every year. It offers excellent value in some races.

One of the most important things to remember about Saratoga, or the “Spa,” as it is sometimes called, is that some horses really love and others only run so-so there. The race we’ll use as our example in this article is race 1 on July 31st, 2013. It was a $20,000 non winners of 3 claiming event to be contested over 1 1/8 miles for three year olds and up. I identified three horses that I thought were the true contenders in the race and divided my 80% probability among the three horses.

There were only two horses in the race that had both won at Saratoga and won at the distance. They were the 1, Ea, and the 5, Sinorice. We’ll focus on the three contenders and disregard the rest of the field for the sake of brevity.

The 1, was the class of the race in my opinion but was coming back from a layoff of over 90 days. The trainer, David Jacobson, only has a 12% average with horses that have laid off that long, so I was skeptical and didn’t make it my top choice. However, I couldn’t completely disregard the horse based on its wins at the distance and track. It also had Javier Castellano up in the irons and he has an 18% win average in routes. I figured Ea had a 20% chance of winning so I assigned the break even odds of 4-1. Two wins in 10 races at $2 per race would result in $20 payback for $20 in bets.

The next horse was Sovereign Default, the 4 horse another Jacobson horse but not part of an entry. Though Sovereign Default hadn’t won at the distance or Saratoga I made it my top choice at 2-1 with 35% of my 80% pool. It had a running style that made it a threat on the lead and was also dropping in class. Though coming back from a layoff, it was a shorter layoff than Ea and Jacobson has a 26% average with such horses who’ve been off between 46-90 days.

My last contender was Sinorice racing from post 5 for trainer Nick Zito who has a 33% average with horses moving down one class. Sinorice had also won at the track and distance. Jose Lezcano was the jockey and had won at the track and distance on Sinorice. This is an angle I love. I assigned 3-1 odds to the horse and though I thought Sovereign Default had the edge based on recent speed figures, I really liked Sinorice’s chances. I boxed the 4-5 because they were my top picks in a short field and I thought them much the best.

Now the problem was how to find value in the win pools. The odds at post time were 1 = 5/2 (I thought this was no value and passed on the horse) 4 = even odds that fluctuated between 6/5 and even. (terrible price for a horse that hadn’t even proven it could win at the track and distance) 5 = 5-1 ( A good value since I thought fair value was 3-1 odds)

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